The Case for a Dense Core
Steve Belmont, AIA:

Transit, Location Efficiency, and Transit-Oriented Development
Hank Dittmar:

Financing Mixed Use Progressive Development
Chris Leinberger:

Houston, we have an opportunity
Dr. Arthur C. Nelson, ASCE, FAICP

Developers' Panel

Public Policy Panel

Entire report - pdf - 2 meg

Presentations
Steve Belmont- 14 meg
Hank Dittmar- 19 meg
Chris Leinberger- 18 meg
Arthur Nelson - 8 meg
Jeff Taebel- 3 meg
John Jacob- 3.5 meg
David Crossley- 9 meg

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., ASCE, FAICP:
Houston, We Have An Opportunity

Dr. "Chris" Nelson is Professor and Director of Urban Affairs and Planning, and Senior Fellow with the Metropolitan Institute, at Virginia Tech's Northern Virginia center in Alexandria. He focused on density and managed growth and their economic benefits as they relate to Houston and to the nation. The title of his presentation was, “Houston: We Have an Opportunity.”

The Big Picture
In three decades, Nelson said that more than 80 percent of everything we see today in Houston will be changed. An infusion of three million new people and two million new jobs will require new homes and office space in the region. That will lead to a total of five billion square feet to be built between now and then. The “Big Opportunity,” Nelson says, is where and how to build that.
Nelson said that with “managed growth,” which he distinguishes from “controlled growth,” Harris County could save big on infrastructure and take advantage of changing demographics. First Nelson emphasized the importance of knowing the difference between managed growth and controlled growth, saying that managed growth involves actions such as these:
• preserve public goods,
• minimize taxpayer exposure,
• maximize economic exchange,
• elevate quality of life,
• distribute benefits and burdens equitably,
• and facilitate needs efficiently.

On the other hand, he said, controlled growth includes stringent growth controls, moratoriums, quotas, and “caving into NIMBYism.”

With managed growth that would focus on “re-centering 25 percent of new development,” Harris County could save $7,000 per resident on infrastructure costs. Nelson said that would come from a water demand savings of 11 percent, sewer demand savings of 12 percent, and roadway savings of 2,000 lane miles, all amounting to up to $10 billion saved, or $7,000 per residential unit.

Nelson also cited another fact that could have serious implications for Houston’s economic growth. In an earlier study, he found that each beltway surrounding a city lowers overall regional retail and service trade by two to five percent. The beltway, he said, spreads out the customers and the convenience of retail and also helps encourage online sales.* Houston currently has three beltways (Loop 610, Beltway 8, Highway 6/1960), another underway (Grand Parkway/SH 99), and a fifth on the drawing boards (Prairie Parkway). All these beltways could have the total effect of reducing retail activity in the region by 10-25 percent, according to the study.

Changing demographics
Like the other speakers, Nelson emphasized the changing demographics and trends sweeping across the nation and how they present an opportunity to build for sustainability. According to Nelson,
• “Traditional Households” are on the wane with family households with childen decreasing from 40 percent of total households in 1970 to 26 percent in 2000.
• Nonfamily household heads living alone have increased from 17 percent in 1970 to 31 percent in 2000.
• In 2003, sales of owner-occupied attached homes exceeded sales of detached homes for the first time.
• Prices of attached homes exceeded prices of detached homes for the first time.

After rolling through the new trends, Nelson asked, “Is the market telling us something?” He said if he were a planner, he’d recognize the shift and work on seriously saving infrastructure and land costs with further re-centering. He predicted that the distribution of demand between 2005 and 2035 would be the following:
• 30 percent apartment
• 20 percent townhouse (city and suburb)
• 20 percent small, cluster lot, and zero-lot line
• 30 percent conventional large lot
That translates into 70 percent of future demand as “urban-esque” (10+units per acre).